Working Papers
De-prosecution and death: A comment on the fatal flaws in Hogan (2022) (with J.J. Naddeo and Tom Scott)
Current Version Here (with response to Mr. Hogan's response)
Replication data and code
Abstract: In a manuscript recently accepted for publication in Criminology & Public Policy, Hogan (2022) presents results from a synthetic control method analysis that suggests de-prosecution in Philadelphia in the mid to late 2010s resulted in a large increase in the number of homicides that occurred in the city. In this comment, we point out several critical errors in the analysis that when corrected flip the direction of the effect and render the author’s estimated effect null. Our primary concerns include the unjustified short pre-intervention period, a failure to correct for imbalance over covariates in the synthetic control models, the use of homicide counts instead of rates as an outcome, an inaccurate description of the data used, and an inadequate explanation of data cleaning procedures including missing data. We reproduce the author’s results after correcting for these issues and find no effect of de-prosecution on homicide. Thus, these flaws are fatal to the author’s findings and therefore the study should not be used to inform criminal justice policy. Considering the author’s unwillingness to share their data and code, we call for a greater dedication to open science and reproduction/replication in criminology.
Published Peer-Reviewed Papers
2022
Testing the Cinderella Effect: Measuring Victim Injury in Child Abuse Cases (with Kristina Block) Journal of Criminal Justice
An Analysis of National Hockey League Playoff Games and City-Level Crime Counts (with Kristina Block) Crime & Delinquency
The material of policing: Budgets, personnel and the United States' misdemeanor arrest decline (with Brenden Beck, Eaven Holder, and Abigail Novak) The British Journal of Criminology
2021
How Many Complaints Against Police Officers Can Be Abated by Incapacitating A Few "Bad Apples? (with Aaron Chalfin) Criminology & Public Policy
Street Light Outages, Public Safety and Crime Displacement: Evidence from Chicago (with Aaron Chalfin and Mike LaForest) Journal of Quantitative Criminology
Can Precision Policing Reduce Gun Violent? Evidence from ‘Gang Takedowns’ in New York City (with Aaron Chalfin and Mike LaForest) Journal of Policy Analysis & Management
Ambient Lighting and Perceptions of Public Safety: Evidence from a Survey Experiment (with Aaron Chalfin) Security Journal
Measuring Marginal Crime Concentration: A New Solution to an Old Problem (with Aaron Chalfin and Maria Cuellar) Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency
The (In)Effectiveness of Campus Smart Locks for Reducing Crime Journal of Applied Security Research
2020
Public Beliefs About the Accuracy and Importance of Forensic Evidence in the United States (with Shichun Ling and Maria Cuellar) Science & Justice
Harm Reduction in Family Violence: Does Marijuana Make Assaults Safer? (with Li Sian Goh) Journal of Interpersonal Violence
The Importance of Forensic Evidence on Decisions of Criminal Guilt (with Shichun Ling and Colleen Berryessa) Science & Justice
2019
More Cops, Fewer Prisoners? (with Aaron Chalfin) Criminology & Public Policy
De-prosecution and death: A comment on the fatal flaws in Hogan (2022) (with J.J. Naddeo and Tom Scott)
Current Version Here (with response to Mr. Hogan's response)
Replication data and code
Abstract: In a manuscript recently accepted for publication in Criminology & Public Policy, Hogan (2022) presents results from a synthetic control method analysis that suggests de-prosecution in Philadelphia in the mid to late 2010s resulted in a large increase in the number of homicides that occurred in the city. In this comment, we point out several critical errors in the analysis that when corrected flip the direction of the effect and render the author’s estimated effect null. Our primary concerns include the unjustified short pre-intervention period, a failure to correct for imbalance over covariates in the synthetic control models, the use of homicide counts instead of rates as an outcome, an inaccurate description of the data used, and an inadequate explanation of data cleaning procedures including missing data. We reproduce the author’s results after correcting for these issues and find no effect of de-prosecution on homicide. Thus, these flaws are fatal to the author’s findings and therefore the study should not be used to inform criminal justice policy. Considering the author’s unwillingness to share their data and code, we call for a greater dedication to open science and reproduction/replication in criminology.
Published Peer-Reviewed Papers
2022
Testing the Cinderella Effect: Measuring Victim Injury in Child Abuse Cases (with Kristina Block) Journal of Criminal Justice
An Analysis of National Hockey League Playoff Games and City-Level Crime Counts (with Kristina Block) Crime & Delinquency
The material of policing: Budgets, personnel and the United States' misdemeanor arrest decline (with Brenden Beck, Eaven Holder, and Abigail Novak) The British Journal of Criminology
2021
How Many Complaints Against Police Officers Can Be Abated by Incapacitating A Few "Bad Apples? (with Aaron Chalfin) Criminology & Public Policy
Street Light Outages, Public Safety and Crime Displacement: Evidence from Chicago (with Aaron Chalfin and Mike LaForest) Journal of Quantitative Criminology
Can Precision Policing Reduce Gun Violent? Evidence from ‘Gang Takedowns’ in New York City (with Aaron Chalfin and Mike LaForest) Journal of Policy Analysis & Management
Ambient Lighting and Perceptions of Public Safety: Evidence from a Survey Experiment (with Aaron Chalfin) Security Journal
Measuring Marginal Crime Concentration: A New Solution to an Old Problem (with Aaron Chalfin and Maria Cuellar) Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency
The (In)Effectiveness of Campus Smart Locks for Reducing Crime Journal of Applied Security Research
2020
Public Beliefs About the Accuracy and Importance of Forensic Evidence in the United States (with Shichun Ling and Maria Cuellar) Science & Justice
Harm Reduction in Family Violence: Does Marijuana Make Assaults Safer? (with Li Sian Goh) Journal of Interpersonal Violence
The Importance of Forensic Evidence on Decisions of Criminal Guilt (with Shichun Ling and Colleen Berryessa) Science & Justice
2019
More Cops, Fewer Prisoners? (with Aaron Chalfin) Criminology & Public Policy
